Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe993…90eb other 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$248 (-14%) realized −$247 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$11
sports 35% −$84
crypto 10% −$80
world 7% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -19.1% -26.8% 29% 27% -23.5%
≤30d 70 -19.1% -26.8% 29% 27% -23.5%
≤90d 70 -19.1% -26.8% 29% 27% -23.5%
all 70 -19.1% -26.8% 29% 27% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 27% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 27% -30.8%
15% -40.2% 24% -37.5%
20% -46.0% 21% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$20 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 50
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage5d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$22 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +70%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$15 -75%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $19 −$8 -41%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$75 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $119 +$102 +86%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -23%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$36 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$25 +124%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $15 +$135 +899%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 9m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $28 12m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $29 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $15 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $31 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 30h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $5 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $11 41h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.12 · official $44.12 (match) · 139 history records