Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe995…5255 sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$767 (+10%) realized +$632 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 51L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$377
other 15% +$549
crypto 3% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -12.2% -20.6% 30% 26% +1.5%
≤30d 73 -12.2% -20.6% 30% 26% +1.5%
≤90d 73 -12.2% -20.6% 30% 26% +1.5%
all 73 -12.2% -20.6% 30% 26% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 26% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 26% -8.2%
15% -35.1% 23% -17.0%
20% -41.5% 22% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$30 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$632
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 51
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions7
Markets (closed)73 / 80
History coverage4d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 99¢ $210 $298 +$88 (+42%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 16¢ 92¢ $20 $116 +$96 (+478%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 96¢ $29 $92 +$62 (+211%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 23¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $762 +$62 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $31 +$144 +469%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$29 -57%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $307 +$427 +139%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,456 +$123 +8%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $14 −$6 -38%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$10 -49%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$10 -10%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $270 −$139 -52%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $15 −$10 -65%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 $0 +0%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $304 −$13 -4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $63 −$60 -95%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $51 +$110 +216%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $112 −$100 -90%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $204 +$296 +146%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $503 +$130 +26%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $31 −$18 -60%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $36 +$64 +178%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $265 −$260 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $81 +$62 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $215 −$164 -76%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$11 +46%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $157 −$148 -94%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $162 +$136 +84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $150 +$165 +110%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $94 −$80 -86%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $113 +$20 +18%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $18 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $98 +$54 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $101 −$3 -4%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 93¢ $223 3m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $167 9m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $73 12m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 71¢ $108 13m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $122 20m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $154 21m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 24m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 30m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $210 34m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $504 37m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? SELL Yes 25¢ $58 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? SELL Yes 19¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? SELL Yes 17¢ $109 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $55 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $98 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 14¢ $22 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $102 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $145 3h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.19 · official $505.19 (match) · 183 history records