Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E9 0xe99b…f212 sports 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,729 (+23%) realized +$1,775 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%64W / 63L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$273
14 days+$385
30 days+$1,021
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,541
other 18% +$2
weather 2% −$25
crypto 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +7.5% -2.8% 55% 45% +2.9%
≤30d 104 -3.0% -12.2% 47% 44% +11.0%
≤90d 127 +14.2% +3.3% 50% 48% +10.6%
all 127 +14.2% +3.3% 50% 48% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 48% +10.6%
10% -6.6% 43% +0.1%
15% -15.6% 35% -9.6%
20% -23.9% 25% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$17 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized+$1,775
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses64 / 63
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions5
Markets (closed)127 / 132
History coverage47d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $340 $313 −$27 (-8%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $65 $77 +$12 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 40¢ 40¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $114 −$82 -72%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $102 +$5 +4%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $51 −$7 -15%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $81 −$4 -5%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$31 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $71 +$54 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $238 +$168 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +58%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$35 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$99 +122%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $182 −$7 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$20 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$17 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$13 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$60 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $66 +$37 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 +$46 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $41 +$39 +97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $71 −$4 -6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 +$120 +118%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $50 +$15 +30%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$21 +106%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $25 +$5 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $68 2m
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 15m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 16m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 18m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 19m
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $60 48m
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $43 48m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 60¢ $77 57m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $30 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $71 30h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 30h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 30h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 30h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 40h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 44h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $46 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 45h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $81 2d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $80 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.06 · official $466.06 (match) · 353 history records