Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe99b…d599 sports 393 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$559 (+3%) realized +$526 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%215W / 163L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$99
14 days+$150
30 days+$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$479
other 12% +$120
politics 3% +$36
crypto 3% −$53
world 1% −$36
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% +$31
economics 0% +$28
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.9% +2.1% 54% 54% -5.2%
≤30d 86 +12.3% +1.6% 60% 58% -1.4%
≤90d 123 +11.8% +1.2% 56% 50% -5.2%
all 378 +12.6% +1.9% 57% 53% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 53% -5.6%
10% -7.9% 44% -14.7%
15% -16.8% 35% -22.9%
20% -24.9% 29% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized+$526
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses215 / 163
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions15
Markets (closed)378 / 393
History coverage239d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Namibia 64¢ 69¢ $58 $63 +$5 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 58¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 79¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $34 $44 +$10 (+30%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 68¢ $41 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 76¢ $23 $30 +$7 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? No 70¢ 78¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+12%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 59¢ 60¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Brazil vs Panama Brazil 52¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 22 $396 −$6 -2%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas Jun 21 $82 +$111 +135%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil Jun 21 $425 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 21 $35 +$65 +186%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 21 $80 +$26 +32%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Jun 20 $9 +$9 +100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $41 +$108 +263%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $16 +$19 +117%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $41 +$29 +71%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 19 $44 −$44 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $23 −$6 -28%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +61%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $76 +$67 +88%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $38 +$9 +25%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $2 +$1 +85%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $59 +$33 +55%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $297 +$34 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $210 +$70 +33%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $192 −$157 -82%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $81 +$67 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $141 −$70 -50%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $88 +$148 +168%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $103 +$25 +24%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $27 +$43 +156%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $283 −$70 -25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $117 −$116 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $126 −$126 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $575 +$97 +17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $42 +$23 +54%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $125 −$72 -58%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $9 +$6 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$52 +111%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $16 +$19 +122%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $204 +$72 +35%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 12 $50 +$14 +28%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $1 +$1 +178%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $9 +$1 +15%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan Jun 11 $56 +$20 +35%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Zimbabwe High Performance Xi vs Brazil Jun 10 $65 +$35 +54%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $68 +$23 +35%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $236 −$52 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Thailand 50¢ $39 36m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 50¢ $13 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 50¢ $209 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Thailand 53¢ $7 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Thailand 53¢ $10 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Thailand 53¢ $11 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Thailand 53¢ $15 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 48¢ $216 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 49¢ $1 2h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 49¢ $12 2h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Thailand 64¢ $83 3h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Thailand 64¢ $3 3h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Brazil vs Panama BUY Brazil 52¢ $2 4h
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 59¢ $15 5h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 61¢ $61 5h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 63¢ $5 12h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 63¢ $31 13h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 63¢ $7 13h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 63¢ $63 13h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 64¢ $58 13h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas SELL Bahamas 50¢ $78 14h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas SELL Bahamas 49¢ $75 14h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas SELL Bahamas 13¢ $40 16h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 10¢ $20 16h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 16¢ $29 16h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 16¢ $3 16h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil SELL Bermuda 85¢ $423 16h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 16¢ $3 16h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 13¢ $27 16h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil BUY Bermuda 85¢ $11 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.82 · official $426.98 (match) · 1962 history records