trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 80% | 20% | -2.9% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 54% | 23% | -6.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 62% | 19% | -6.6% |
| all | 16 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 62% | 19% | -6.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 19% | -6.6% |
| 10% | -20.8% | 12% | -15.5% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 6% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 6% | -31.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $144 | $144 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 21¢ | 20¢ | $55 | $53 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $36 | $36 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $46 | +$3 | +7% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $83 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? | Jun 19 | $104 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 19 | $4 | $0 | -13% |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Jun 05 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | Jun 05 | $2 | +$1 | +27% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $12 | −$9 | -74% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $4 | +$4 | +100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 24 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | -16% |
| Paradex FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +3% |