Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe9a0…e751 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
other 29% +$17
sports 12% −$1
politics 10% −$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 8 +2.2% -7.6% 38% 12% -8.6%
all 41 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 5% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 5% -7.1%
10% -15.8% 2% -16.0%
15% -23.9% 2% -24.1%
20% -31.4% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.33 per $1 lost it wins $9.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage478d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $42 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $78 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $62 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 +13%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 9–16? May 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $16 +$15 +93%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 01 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 29 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 28 $14 −$1 -5%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $13 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $3 $0 +1%
UT Martin vs. Tennessee Tech Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure Mar 05 $13 −$1 -8%
Niagara vs. Saint Peter's Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Florida Atlantic vs. UAB Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Marquette vs. UConn Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $7 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $18 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $20 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $38 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $42 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $42 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $43 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.01 · official $38.01 (match) · 107 history records