Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a0…e723 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 734d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$10,929 (-44%) realized −$12,696 · open +$1,767
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$861per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$8,867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,000
14 days−$3,000
30 days−$3,005
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$7,028
other 13% −$2,998
world 9% −$14
economics 2% +$1
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 60% -75.6%
all 26 -32.1% -38.6% 46% 19% -73.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 19% -73.3%
10% -44.5% 19% -75.9%
15% -49.8% 15% -78.2%
20% -54.7% 12% -80.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$896 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

734d coverage
Net worth$8,867
Realized−$12,696
Unrealized+$1,767
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage734d
Avg bet$861
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 60¢ $5,000 $6,071 +$1,071 (+21%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 76¢ $2,000 $2,732 +$732 (+37%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 33¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,015 −$3,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? May 11 $726 +$247 +34%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 29 $20 +$18 +92%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $500 +$462 +92%
KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $2,000 −$990 -50%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 Feb 24 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5 Feb 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
AZ vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 Feb 22 $239 −$239 -100%
AJ Auxerre vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 Feb 22 $1,391 −$1,391 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 Jan 28 $280 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Dec 16 $280 +$1 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Nov 03 $20 +$2 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15? Oct 13 $1,109 −$8 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 13 $1,116 −$7 -1%
Magic vs. Bucks Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump election interference trial start in September or October? Oct 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will JD Vance say "abortion" during the debate? Oct 24 $7 +$1 +10%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Sep 26 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin above $65,000 on July 26? Aug 25 $4 +$2 +45%
Roaring Kitty billionaire before July? Jul 20 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,013 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,013 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 18d
Will Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $726 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 58d
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) BUY Jazz 52¢ $20 116d
KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $500 120d
KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,000 120d
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $1,010 120d
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,000 120d
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,000 120d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 120d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 120d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 120d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 120d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 120d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $125 121d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $125 121d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $125 121d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $625 121d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $400 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,867.03 · official $8,832.28 (match) · 68 history records