Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E9 0xe9a2…0d07 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$3
other 34% +$2
politics 9% +$2
crypto 8% +$1
tech 4% $0
finance 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.2%
all 47 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -8.7%
10% -18.8% 4% -17.4%
15% -26.7% 4% -25.4%
20% -33.8% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $12 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $28 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $33 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $37 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $22 +$2 +8%
Starmer out before July? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will Jaylen Brown Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 16 $3 +$3 +104%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $15 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump dance in March? Mar 30 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 20 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $38 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $34 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $37 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $37 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $11 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $1 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $28 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $4 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $29 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $11 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $22 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $33 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records