Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a2…7945 crypto 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,786 (+6%) realized +$2,786 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%157W / 123L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$70
sports 5% +$2,716
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 89 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 280 -42.0% -47.5% 56% 0% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 0% -4.2%
10% -52.6% 0% -13.4%
15% -57.1% 0% -21.8%
20% -61.3% 0% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -85% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$0 · ×1393.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1792.83 per $1 lost it wins $1792.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2,786
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses157 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 281
History coverage150d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $32 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? May 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 17 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 7? May 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 6? May 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 5? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 4? May 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 3? May 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? May 03 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 1? May 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 30? May 01 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $32 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $30 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.62 · official $32.62 (match) · 565 history records