Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe9a5…ba93 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$322 (+8%) realized +$361 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%33W / 22L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$159
14 days−$258
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$618
other 20% −$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -26.1%
≤30d 47 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 57% -11.2%
≤90d 55 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 60% -2.8%
all 55 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 60% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 60% -2.8%
10% -13.2% 58% -12.1%
15% -21.6% 45% -20.6%
20% -29.3% 40% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$63 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$361
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses33 / 22
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage35d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $70 $31 −$39 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $78 −$66 -85%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$62 +121%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $144 +$82 +57%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $192 −$188 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 −$149 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $105 +$60 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$56 +114%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$119 +234%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $51 −$51 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $53 +$49 +93%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $55 −$54 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $57 +$48 +84%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$33 +64%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $49 +$26 +53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $84 −$83 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $50 +$34 +68%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $57 −$56 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $53 +$54 +103%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $99 −$77 -78%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $63 −$43 -69%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 29 $101 +$44 +43%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs May 27 $60 −$59 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 27 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $51 +$27 +54%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 26 $14 −$13 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $50 +$14 +27%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 26 $45 −$45 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 +$37 +73%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $40 +$31 +78%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 25 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 25 $20 +$8 +41%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $30 +$9 +31%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun May 25 $20 +$7 +36%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 25 $35 +$8 +23%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$51 +101%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $81 +$24 +30%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $50 +$35 +70%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $101 +$79 +78%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $24 +$68 +291%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 24 $200 +$41 +20%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $99 −$97 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 22 $77 −$76 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $226 +$75 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 99¢ $112 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 44¢ $51 5h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $78 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $220 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina $6 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 33¢ $144 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $192 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $150 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 94¢ $165 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $105 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 6d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 56¢ $59 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $61 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $169 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $51 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 9d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G BUY Karmine Corp Blue 62¢ $51 12d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $102 15d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 27¢ $55 16d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $104 16d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $57 16d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $53 16d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $83 16d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 60¢ $51 16d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 99¢ $76 16d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 71¢ $40 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.68 · official $30.69 (match) · 97 history records