Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a8…2588 crypto 33 markets active 9h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$3
other 9% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 36% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -8.9% -17.6% 48% 36% -11.3%
≤90d 33 -8.9% -17.6% 48% 36% -11.3%
all 33 -8.9% -17.6% 48% 36% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 36% -11.3%
10% -25.4% 30% -19.8%
15% -32.6% 21% -27.5%
20% -39.3% 21% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$12 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -17%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 10 $3 +$7 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 81¢ $1 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 12h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 88¢ $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records