Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9a8…106d other 20 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$1 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$17
crypto 13% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -24.7%
≤30d 1 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -24.7%
≤90d 1 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -24.7%
all 1 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 0% -24.7%
10% -31.9% 0% -31.9%
15% -38.5% 0% -38.5%
20% -44.5% 0% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.60 · official $110.60 (match) · 40 history records