Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E9 0xe9a9…e135 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$156 (+5%) realized +$156 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate71%12W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$195per market

Trades / day51.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)-6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+3.8%	-6.1%	71%	59%	-27.4%
≤30d	17	+3.8%	-6.1%	71%	59%	-27.4%
≤90d	17	+3.8%	-6.1%	71%	59%	-27.4%
all	17	+3.8%	-6.1%	71%	59%	-27.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover51.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.1%	59%	-27.4%
10% ← realistic here	-15.1%	53%	-34.4%
15%	-23.3%	41%	-40.7%
20%	-30.8%	24%	-46.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +34% → late -23% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$295 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$156

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses12 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$195

Trades / day51.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 23	$414	−$400	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 23	$310	−$300	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 23	$156	+$181	+116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 23	$259	+$235	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 23	$310	−$300	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 23	$337	−$325	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 23	$155	−$150	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 23	$155	+$120	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 23	$202	+$23	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 23	$402	+$27	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 23	$127	+$47	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 23	$51	+$16	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 23	$101	+$25	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 23	$103	+$82	+80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 23	$127	+$46	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 23	$51	+$25	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 23	$50	+$2	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$207	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$207	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$101	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records