Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe9aa…da0a other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-0%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$11
politics 36% −$11
sports 6% −$69
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 104 -6.5% -15.4% 6% 3% -9.9%
all 114 -6.5% -15.4% 10% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 6% -9.9%
10% -23.5% 4% -18.5%
15% -30.9% 3% -26.4%
20% -37.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage115d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $227 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $149 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $376 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $164 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 24 $191 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $315 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $356 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $145 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $196 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $362 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $153 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $149 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $169 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $341 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $386 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $361 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $422 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $379 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $181 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $148 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $176 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $156 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $385 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 4h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 9h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 15h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 20h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 39h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 39h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 5d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $197 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $197 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 24d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $201 25d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $201 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $191 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $191 28d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $143 28d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $143 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 342 history records