Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe9ac…8de4 sports 1037 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$970 (-1%) realized −$968 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%553W / 474L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$1,471est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$3,847
other 7% −$2,721
crypto 0% −$8
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 +5.6% -4.4% 59% 56% +33.1%
≤30d 689 +3.5% -6.3% 55% 53% -14.5%
≤90d 1027 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 52% -9.2%
all 1027 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 52% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 52% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 50% -17.9%
15% -23.7% 42% -25.8%
20% -31.2% 36% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$105 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$968
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses553 / 474
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,471
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1027 / 1037
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$111
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 51¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 −$26 -78%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +24%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $115 +$93 +81%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +36%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$7 -37%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $7 +$5 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $509 +$709 +139%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$1 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $6 +$3 +52%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $16 +$13 +83%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $18 −$10 -53%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$20 -66%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $80 +$53 +66%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$1 +23%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $13 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +55%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $11 +$4 +35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $17 +$23 +140%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +74%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $13 +$4 +27%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $18 +$8 +45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$8 +28%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $77 +$6 +8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $47 +$24 +52%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 $0 +29%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $29 −$24 -83%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +27%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $8 +$3 +38%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $71 −$56 -78%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $39 +$18 +47%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $109 −$26 -24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$301 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $415 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 46¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $78 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $2 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 60¢ $2 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 60¢ $1 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 60¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 64¢ $2 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $106 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 66¢ $2 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.71 · official $27.71 (match) · 3500 history records