Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E9 0xe9ac…e8d2 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-6%) realized −$91 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$96
world 6% −$4
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +97.5% +78.6% 100% 100% +79.8%
≤90d 5 +56.4% +41.5% 80% 60% +30.6%
all 21 +18.9% +7.6% 57% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 43% -15.5%
10% -2.7% 38% -23.6%
15% -12.1% 33% -31.0%
20% -20.7% 24% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$70 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage223d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 66¢ 64¢ $106 $103 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $36 +$54 +149%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $34 +$16 +46%
Jiujiang: Jiaqi Wang vs Xiaodi You May 19 $32 +$3 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $95 −$4 -4%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 05 $50 +$41 +83%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Mar 05 $51 −$16 -31%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Jan 30 $88 −$88 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 30 $50 +$38 +75%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jan 03 $117 −$117 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $5 +$2 +45%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Dec 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Dec 22 $100 +$108 +108%
Will Death Stranding 2: On The Beach win Game of the Year at the 2025 Dec 15 $5 $0 +4%
Eagles vs. Chargers Dec 08 $119 −$119 -100%
Rockets vs. Jazz Dec 08 $40 +$226 +567%
Pistons vs. Pacers Dec 01 $114 +$29 +25%
Thunder vs. Jazz Nov 24 $105 +$9 +9%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Charlotte 49ers Nov 20 $98 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 66¢ $107 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 39¢ $36 9d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $34 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes $1 52d
Jiujiang: Jiaqi Wang vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 92¢ $32 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes $90 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes $95 52d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 54¢ $50 62d
Jazz vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 55¢ $36 113d
Mavericks vs. Bucks SELL Mavericks 33¢ $36 113d
Mavericks vs. Bucks BUY Mavericks 47¢ $51 134d
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans BUY Grizzlies 46¢ $88 147d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 57¢ $50 151d
Timberwolves vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 58¢ $100 164d
Panthers vs. Buccaneers BUY Panthers 42¢ $117 174d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 41¢ $40 184d
Mavericks vs. Pelicans BUY Mavericks 51¢ $114 186d
Mavericks vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 48¢ $100 193d
Eagles vs. Chargers BUY Eagles 56¢ $119 200d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 15¢ $3 207d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 15¢ $11 207d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 15¢ $0 207d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 15¢ $1 207d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 15¢ $11 207d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 15¢ $15 207d
Pistons vs. Pacers BUY Pistons 80¢ $114 214d
Thunder vs. Jazz BUY Thunder 92¢ $105 218d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 218d
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Charlotte 49ers BUY UTSA Roadrunners 89¢ $98 223d
Will Death Stranding 2: On The Beach win Game of the Year at the 2025 BUY No 96¢ $5 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.20 · official $103.20 (match) · 42 history records