Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9ac…e166 sports 748 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$850 (-3%) realized −$854 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%447W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$101
14 days+$95
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$1,046
sports 35% +$118
world 3% +$99
crypto 1% −$76
politics 1% −$45
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 47% +7.8%
≤30d 69 -15.6% -23.6% 55% 46% -19.1%
≤90d 318 -1.7% -11.1% 58% 51% -9.6%
all 739 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 53% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 53% -12.4%
10% -20.1% 43% -20.8%
15% -27.8% 33% -28.5%
20% -34.9% 19% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$854
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses447 / 292
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)739 / 748
History coverage233d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 80¢ 76¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $67 +$24 +36%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 +$14 +37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$19 -37%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $28 +$31 +110%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $106 +$48 +46%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$10 +41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$19 +64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$18 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$11 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 +$9 +14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 +$12 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $60 +$5 +9%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $54 +$7 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $77 −$77 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 04 $21 +$8 +39%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $30 −$25 -83%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $26 −$6 -22%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $15 +$7 +47%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $125 +$15 +12%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France BUY 14¢ $21 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 80¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $90 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $20 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $51 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $37 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 54¢ $32 44h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil BUY 54¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $29 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 24¢ $34 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 47¢ $28 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $106 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $23 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.37 · official $109.37 · 1697 history records