Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9b3…26a7 other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 54L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$25
other 29% −$4
politics 19% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.3% -23.4% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 16 +2.3% -7.4% 44% 6% -6.6%
≤90d 63 +8.8% -1.6% 27% 5% -8.5%
all 79 +5.9% -4.2% 32% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 4% -8.7%
10% -13.3% 4% -17.4%
15% -21.7% 3% -25.4%
20% -29.4% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage430d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 −$2 -40%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $148 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $74 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $57 +$2 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $35 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $51 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $29 +$24 +83%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $61 $0 -0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $32 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $58 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $57 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $64 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $64 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $2 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $6 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $7 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $9 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $34 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.73 · official $60.70 (match) · 286 history records