Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E9 0xe9b4…695e crypto 1393 markets active 3d ago coverage 174d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-0%) realized −$152 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate87%1215W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$58
14 days+$49
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$195
sports 6% +$103
other 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.1% -24.1% 43% 43% -22.2%
≤30d 886 +0.7% -8.8% 93% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 998 +0.4% -9.1% 86% 5% -10.3%
all 1390 +0.6% -9.0% 87% 7% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -10.2%
10% -17.7% 4% -18.8%
15% -25.7% 3% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1215 / 175
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1390 / 1393
History coverage174d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $76 $130 +$54 (+71%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $165 −$163 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $19 +$24 +125%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $176 +$116 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $12 +$11 +96%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $9 +$8 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -91%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $96 +$2 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $35 +$24 +67%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $28 +$80 +284%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $28 −$28 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $37 +$47 +130%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $164 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.70 · official $133.70 (match) · 3500 history records