Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E9 0xe9b5…f95b sports 384 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$868 (-1%) realized −$877 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%202W / 180L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$2,720est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$782
7 days+$1,198
14 days−$1,117
30 days−$4,793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,230
other 3% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +21.6% +10.0% 50% 41% +1.6%
≤30d 139 -9.9% -18.5% 47% 34% -18.2%
≤90d 382 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 42% -8.7%
all 382 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 42% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 42% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 36% -17.4%
15% -21.9% 30% -25.4%
20% -29.6% 22% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$196 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$693
Realized−$877
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses202 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,720
Open positions2
Markets (closed)382 / 384
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$320
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score No 38¢ 38¢ $684 $693 +$9 (+1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 14¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $54 −$3 -5%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 27 $158 −$125 -79%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $770 +$280 +36%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1,491 +$720 +48%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $387 −$379 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $258 +$749 +291%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $652 −$652 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $125 +$374 +300%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $0 $0 -69%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $332 −$332 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1,061 +$149 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 25 $650 +$40 +6%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $200 −$105 -52%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $226 +$777 +345%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $647 −$647 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $440 −$40 -9%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $230 +$10 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $680 +$320 +47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 24 $621 −$489 -79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $380 +$369 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $320 +$179 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $245 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $95 +$5 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $94 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $79 +$21 +27%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $96 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $390 −$200 -51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $267 +$232 +87%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $480 −$480 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $345 +$30 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $650 +$20 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $696 +$452 +65%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $661 −$661 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $295 +$204 +69%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $310 −$4 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $364 +$39 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $734 +$1,264 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,197 −$1,195 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $259 −$259 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $252 −$251 -99%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $581 −$581 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $684 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 3¢ $29 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $267 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $775 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $1 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $2 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $6 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 15¢ $0 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $158 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $434 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $10 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $24 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $302 7h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 77¢ $1 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $750 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $5 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $4 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $7 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $300 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $59 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $602 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $175 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $5 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $1 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $266 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $693.29 · official $693.29 (match) · 3500 history records