trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | Jun 14 | $91 | +$78 | +86% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major | Jun 13 | $50 | +$20 | +40% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag | Jun 12 | $50 | +$21 | +42% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag | Jun 11 | $50 | −$49 | -99% |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs | May 16 | $22 | −$22 | -98% |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A | May 04 | $101 | +$46 | +46% |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Mar 24 | $74 | −$74 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League | Mar 16 | $21 | +$14 | +67% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo | Mar 14 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl | Mar 14 | $39 | +$31 | +78% |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs | Feb 20 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 4 Winner | Feb 08 | $68 | −$68 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | Feb 08 | $79 | −$79 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Feb 08 | $60 | +$34 | +56% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | Feb 02 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | Feb 01 | $85 | −$85 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 01 | $320 | −$210 | -66% |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) | Dec 16 | $55 | +$40 | +74% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) | Dec 14 | $12 | +$24 | +204% |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 | Dec 14 | $18 | +$21 | +117% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Dec 14 | $40 | −$20 | -50% |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) | Dec 13 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 12 | $30 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 12 | $20 | −$8 | -42% |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Dec 12 | $2 | +$9 | +426% |
| Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Dec 12 | $12 | +$2 | +19% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 05 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31? | Aug 21 | $71 | −$71 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +16.8% | +5.6% | 75% | 75% | +16.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 60% | 60% | +7.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -12.5% | -20.8% | 57% | 57% | -5.2% |
| all | 28 | -5.9% | -14.8% | 43% | 43% | -40.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.8% | 43% | -40.7% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 39% | -46.3% |
| 15% | -30.4% | 39% | -51.5% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 29% | -56.3% |