Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9b9…1d4d sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$340 (-9%) realized −$299 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$147
14 days−$40
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$357
other 27% −$154
crypto 3% +$57
world 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.8% -13.8% 50% 50% -50.0%
≤30d 26 -26.6% -33.6% 42% 42% -26.9%
≤90d 37 -18.4% -26.1% 41% 41% -30.7%
all 41 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 46% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 46% -20.2%
10% -25.6% 46% -27.9%
15% -32.8% 46% -34.8%
20% -39.3% 34% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$79 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 46
History coverage113d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Paddy Pimblett 53¢ 42¢ $250 $199 −$51 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 25¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+53%)
UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) Brandon Royval 36¢ 34¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $151 −$149 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $42 +$54 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 +$30 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $61 +$43 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $232 +$121 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 +$55 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $147 +$70 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $222 +$207 +93%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $45 +$22 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $51 +$47 +93%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $59 +$54 +92%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 30 $150 −$150 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 30 $4 +$2 +60%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $26 +$106 +415%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $112 +$177 +158%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $50 +$38 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? Apr 13 $81 −$81 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Apr 09 $120 −$120 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $30 +$19 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $50 +$21 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 22 $70 +$31 +45%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 22 $150 +$67 +45%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $100 +$178 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Brandon Royval 36¢ $46 1h
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card BUY Paddy Pimblett 53¢ $253 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $151 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $83 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $42 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $57 7d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $81 7d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 58¢ $61 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $79 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $232 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $56 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $147 12d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 67¢ $45 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 44¢ $51 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $51 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $19 19d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $203 19d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 24¢ $26 19d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $15 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 19d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $51 21d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 48¢ $60 21d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 51¢ $59 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 28d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ $30 28d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ $29 28d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 62¢ $4 49d
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.71 · official $379.34 (match) · 110 history records