Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9b9…b069 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-24%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-71.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -68.3% -71.3% 21% 21% -98.3%
≤30d 14 -68.3% -71.3% 21% 21% -98.3%
≤90d 14 -68.3% -71.3% 21% 21% -98.3%
all 14 -68.3% -71.3% 21% 21% -98.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.3% 21% -98.3%
10% ← realistic here -74.1% 21% -98.5%
15% -76.6% 14% -98.6%
20% -78.9% 7% -98.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $126 −$122 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.97 (match) · 38 history records