Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9bf…769f other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-7%) realized +$67 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$143
crypto 17% +$1
sports 9% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.9% -11.3% 60% 60% -12.3%
≤30d 5 -1.9% -11.3% 60% 60% -12.3%
≤90d 5 -1.9% -11.3% 60% 60% -12.3%
all 5 -1.9% -11.3% 60% 60% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 60% -12.3%
10% -19.8% 60% -20.7%
15% -27.5% 60% -28.4%
20% -34.6% 40% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$75 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$87 +86%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 16h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $75 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $51 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $102 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.21 · official $125.50 · 12 history records