Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9c1…df32 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$6 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$12
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$20
sports 17% +$7
politics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +57.8% +42.8% 50% 50% +62.5%
≤30d 10 +16.0% +4.9% 30% 30% -14.6%
≤90d 10 +16.0% +4.9% 30% 30% -14.6%
all 10 +16.0% +4.9% 30% 30% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 30% -14.6%
10% -5.1% 30% -22.7%
15% -14.3% 30% -30.2%
20% -22.7% 20% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$11 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)10 / 20
History coverage11d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $5 $0 -8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
NBA Finals: Any Player to Record a Triple-Double? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.29 · official $85.29 (match) · 34 history records