Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9c7…147a other 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 167d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,340 (+1%) realized +$2,746 · open −$406
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate61%209W / 131L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$981per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$8,973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$273
7 days−$3,934
14 days−$2,485
30 days−$736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% −$476
world 21% +$988
finance 17% +$169
crypto 13% +$2,985
tech 8% +$137
politics 7% −$614
sports 6% −$2,439
weather 3% +$78
economics 2% +$608
culture 0% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -20.3% -27.9% 48% 35% -29.1%
≤30d 127 -12.0% -20.3% 58% 25% -10.1%
≤90d 276 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 20% -9.0%
all 340 -6.1% -15.1% 61% 23% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 23% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 14% -17.8%
15% -30.6% 11% -25.8%
20% -37.4% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,300) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$99 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$8,973
Realized+$2,746
Unrealized−$406
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses209 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions45
Markets (closed)340 / 386
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$981
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 83¢ $2,724 $2,528 −$195 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 96¢ 93¢ $1,600 $1,544 −$56 (-4%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 99¢ 96¢ $420 $411 −$9 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $384 $375 −$8 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $312 $310 −$3 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $213 $215 +$3 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 70¢ 69¢ $211 $210 −$2 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? No 67¢ 68¢ $202 $206 +$5 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 39¢ 40¢ $197 $205 +$8 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 60¢ $182 $180 −$2 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 69¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 54¢ 54¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 41¢ 40¢ $125 $120 −$5 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $120 $119 −$2 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 36¢ 40¢ $106 $116 +$10 (+10%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $101 $115 +$14 (+14%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $119 $114 −$5 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $107 $105 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 34¢ 32¢ $103 $98 −$5 (-4%)
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 93¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 +$5 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $38 +$4 +10%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 +$5 +26%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$11 +101%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $38 +$4 +12%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $13 +$8 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 +$14 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,405 +$10 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $360 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$17 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $21 +$21 +97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$5 +31%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $38 +$4 +11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $4,209 +$171 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$51 +34%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $37 +$6 +16%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 +$12 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$12 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 +$10 +97%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 +$28 +202%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 +$5 +32%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $37 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $36 +$5 +14%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 +$21 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,070 +$28 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$12 +134%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +101%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $42 +$8 +18%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $14 −$13 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $11 +$10 +97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$12 +140%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $46 +$6 +12%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$9 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $548 50m
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 98¢ $400 1h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World C BUY Yes 95¢ $200 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 95¢ $1,415 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $233 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $222 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $950 12h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $13 13h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY No 89¢ $38 13h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 13h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $7 13h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $17 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 13h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 88¢ $37 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $11 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 13h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $5 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $11 13h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 36¢ $360 14h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 47¢ $10 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 53¢ $11 15h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $6 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 36¢ $360 15h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $37 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $9 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $12 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 15h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 91¢ $38 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,972.70 · official $8,974.19 (match) · 3500 history records