Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9c8…20d7 other 39 markets active 6d ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
world 27% $0
politics 19% $0
crypto 8% +$1
sports 5% +$3
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.8% +19.3% 33% 33% -8.7%
≤30d 5 +18.9% +7.6% 20% 20% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +18.9% +7.6% 20% 20% -9.5%
all 39 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 3% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 3% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage459d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $21 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $31 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 02 $2 $0 -20%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $11 $0 -1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 10 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 08 $13 $0 +3%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 30 $16 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $12 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $1 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $23 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $34 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $21 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $10 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $20 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $30 8d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 356d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 377d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 377d
Will another person win the South Korean election? SELL Yes $0 379d
Will another person win the South Korean election? SELL Yes $1 380d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 380d
Will another person win the South Korean election? BUY Yes $1 380d
Will another person win the South Korean election? BUY Yes $0 380d
Will another person win the South Korean election? BUY Yes $0 380d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 380d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 383d
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? SELL No 99¢ $11 383d
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? BUY No 99¢ $11 387d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records