Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe9c9…3c2d crypto 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$170 (+2%) realized +$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%93W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$318
other 6% +$43
sports 6% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +9.2% -1.2% 72% 56% -6.7%
≤30d 130 +9.2% -1.2% 72% 56% -6.7%
≤90d 130 +9.2% -1.2% 72% 56% -6.7%
all 130 +9.2% -1.2% 72% 56% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 56% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 39% -15.7%
15% -19.3% 25% -23.8%
20% -27.2% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$37 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses93 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage6d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $207 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $128 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $129 +$38 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $134 +$35 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $129 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$49 +48%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $129 +$46 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $129 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 +$48 +115%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $85 +$48 +57%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $61 +$112 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $59 +$134 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $205 −$56 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$51 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $411 −$68 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $128 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$23 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $307 −$31 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $133 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $133 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$80 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $133 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $127 −$94 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$20 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records