Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9cb…f7db sports 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,856 (-12%) realized −$1,880 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%87W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$36
14 days−$215
30 days−$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,008
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.7% -11.0% 53% 53% -11.8%
≤30d 46 -18.2% -26.0% 46% 46% -22.4%
≤90d 211 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 41% -21.6%
all 211 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 41% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 41% -21.6%
10% -31.3% 41% -29.1%
15% -38.0% 41% -35.9%
20% -44.1% 37% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$69 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$1,880
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses87 / 124
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions3
Markets (closed)211 / 214
History coverage50d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ 81¢ $78 $162 +$84 (+108%)
Overwatch: ZANSIDE GAMING vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Cheeseburger 20¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+110%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $67 +$132 +197%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $85 +$64 +75%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $85 −$84 -99%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $78 +$102 +131%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $81 +$59 +72%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $81 +$59 +72%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $81 +$69 +85%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $82 +$98 +119%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 16 $41 +$21 +52%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $81 +$9 +11%
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta Jun 16 $73 −$72 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $65 +$35 +55%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $58 −$57 -98%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $64 +$36 +56%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $62 +$68 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $64 +$46 +72%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $67 −$66 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $60 −$58 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $61 +$49 +80%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $81 −$80 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $100 +$38 +38%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $74 +$36 +49%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $81 −$81 -99%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs eternal premium (+1.5) Jun 05 $43 +$47 +108%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 05 $68 +$32 +48%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $84 +$79 +93%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $74 −$70 -95%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $48 −$47 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $66 −$65 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 19 $69 −$68 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $72 +$48 +66%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 19 $50 +$37 +74%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Gro May 19 $59 +$36 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $78 16m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $200 16m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $22 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $22 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $14 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $150 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 33¢ $67 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $26 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $4 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $4 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $47 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $4 2h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 53¢ $80 9h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 100¢ $180 9h
Overwatch: ZANSIDE GAMING vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr BUY Cheeseburger 20¢ $1 10h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 54¢ $44 10h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 53¢ $4 12h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 53¢ $75 12h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 53¢ $28 12h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 53¢ $24 12h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 53¢ $1 12h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 41¢ $17 12h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 43¢ $3 12h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 43¢ $5 12h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 43¢ $53 12h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 53¢ $5 13h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 53¢ $5 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $140 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 58¢ $81 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.64 · official $163.64 (match) · 582 history records