Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

E9 0xe9ce…7199 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$62 (+26%) realized +$63 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-2.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+7.5%	-2.7%	50%	50%	+34.5%
≤30d	6	+7.5%	-2.7%	50%	50%	+34.5%
≤90d	6	+7.5%	-2.7%	50%	50%	+34.5%
all	6	+7.5%	-2.7%	50%	50%	+34.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.7%	50%	+34.5%
10%	-12.0%	50%	+21.7%
15%	-20.5%	50%	+9.9%
20%	-28.3%	50%	-0.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +49% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$11 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$118

Realized+$63

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage6d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Mexico	23¢	24¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$31	+$20	+65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$11	−$11	-100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-100%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$31	+$41	+131%
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$16	+$23	+148%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	23¢	$21	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$26	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	58¢	$31	3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$15	5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	35¢	$16	29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$11	29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$26	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$26	2d
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	100¢	$73	2d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$10	2d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$21	2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds	SELL Over	100¢	$39	3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds	BUY Over	37¢	$16	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.47 · official $118.47 (match) · 19 history records