trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $13,845 | $14,377 | +$532 (+4%) |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $4,200 | $5,250 | +$1,050 (+25%) |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1,255 | $1,029 | −$226 (-18%) |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $75 | $86 | +$12 (+16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | May 14 | $5,131 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 24 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -9.5% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -18.2% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -26.1% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -33.3% |