Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E9 0xe9cf…1deb other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$59 (+39%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$40
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$32
sports 39% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +38.6% +25.4% 55% 55% +24.8%
≤30d 29 +42.5% +28.9% 59% 55% +29.0%
≤90d 29 +42.5% +28.9% 59% 55% +29.0%
all 29 +42.5% +28.9% 59% 55% +29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.9% 55% +29.0%
10% +16.6% 55% +16.6%
15% +5.3% 52% +5.4%
20% -5.0% 45% -5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$14 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$5 +82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$25 +442%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$15 +242%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $3 +$3 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 $0 +3%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $4 +$5 +134%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $6 +$14 +234%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 06 $6 +$14 +223%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $4 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $6 33h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 4d
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $6 5d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 5d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 6d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 6d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records