Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9d0…c5bb weather 598 markets active 3d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$238 (-1%) realized −$238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate79%472W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$240
crypto 18% −$42
sports 1% +$7
other 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.6% -19.1% 58% 50% -27.6%
≤30d 28 +7.1% -3.1% 64% 61% -17.4%
≤90d 341 +2.4% -7.3% 81% 25% -11.8%
all 598 -0.1% -9.6% 79% 17% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 17% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 11% -19.4%
15% -26.1% 10% -27.2%
20% -33.4% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses472 / 126
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)598 / 598
History coverage110d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 598 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +144%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1 +$1 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $2 $0 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $2 +$1 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 07 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +180%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +180%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $2 +$1 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 07 $2 +$2 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 17 $2 +$1 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $2 +$1 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 17 $2 +$1 +70%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 17 $2 +$1 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 17 $2 +$2 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 17 $2 +$3 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $3 +$2 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 17 $2 +$4 +180%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $3 +$4 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mateusz Rebecki win by KO or TKO? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $2 +$1 +50%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $2 +$1 +55%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $2 +$1 +60%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $2 +$1 +62%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 +$1 +65%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$23 +442%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $4 6d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $1 6d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $1 6d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 6d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL No 25¢ $1 6d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY No 34¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 85¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 27¢ $2 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $2 6d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $4 11d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $2 11d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 72¢ $2 11d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 11d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 55¢ $1 11d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Iwo Baraniewski 77¢ $1 11d
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 11d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli BUY Alessandro Costa 82¢ $2 11d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 55¢ $2 11d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 11d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 54¢ $1 11d
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant BUY Chelsea Chandler 53¢ $2 11d
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P BUY Joanderson Brito 63¢ $2 11d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Jeisla Chaves 75¢ $2 11d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig BUY Ketlen Souza 75¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3231 history records