Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E9 0xe9d1…3a4a other 441 markets active 0h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$458 (-3%) realized −$98 · open −$360
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%170W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$252
7 days+$153
14 days+$273
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$107
sports 12% −$404
world 6% +$60
tech 3% −$81
politics 2% −$182
crypto 1% +$11
finance 1% +$40
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +56.1% +41.2% 69% 69% +14.4%
≤30d 28 +57.7% +42.7% 57% 54% -14.1%
≤90d 48 +46.9% +32.9% 60% 56% +9.1%
all 399 -10.4% -18.9% 43% 40% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 40% -10.2%
10% -26.7% 37% -18.8%
15% -33.8% 35% -26.6%
20% -40.2% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$1,774
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$360
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses170 / 229
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions39
Markets (closed)399 / 441
History coverage280d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $409 $324 −$86 (-21%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 60¢ 81¢ $92 $126 +$34 (+36%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 54¢ 48¢ $128 $114 −$15 (-11%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? No 59¢ 80¢ $77 $104 +$27 (+35%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $128 $81 −$47 (-37%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $91 $81 −$10 (-11%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 82¢ 79¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-3%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 75¢ 72¢ $82 $80 −$3 (-3%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 41¢ $117 $71 −$46 (-39%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 78¢ 82¢ $63 $66 +$3 (+5%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 45¢ $88 $58 −$30 (-34%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 75¢ 86¢ $45 $52 +$7 (+15%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 57¢ $55 $51 −$4 (-7%)
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 60¢ $49 $42 −$7 (-14%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $63 $42 −$21 (-34%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 48¢ $62 $39 −$24 (-38%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $85 $38 −$47 (-55%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 44¢ 83¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+89%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 81¢ 54¢ $40 $27 −$14 (-34%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+50%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 47¢ 74¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+59%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 39¢ 39¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 60¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 44¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Jun 17 $70 +$19 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 17 $13 +$47 +365%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$27 +134%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$32 +206%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 +$60 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $70 +$30 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 +$35 +98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $23 +$17 +73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 11 $22 −$9 -40%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $64 −$21 -33%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 +$120 +1148%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $155 −$153 -99%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $36 +$17 +48%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $161 −$160 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $99 −$18 -18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $33 +$23 +67%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $201 +$5 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $40 +$27 +67%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 08 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 02 $26 −$26 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $210 +$81 +39%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $267 +$504 +189%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $507 +$225 +44%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1,053 −$105 -10%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 23 $27 −$7 -25%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 15 $428 +$44 +10%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 13 $70 +$18 +26%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 13 $104 −$5 -5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $66 +$39 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $48 +$55 +114%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $42 +$28 +67%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 02 $68 +$46 +67%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 02 $287 +$77 +27%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 01 $20 −$9 -45%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 01 $12 +$24 +203%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 25 $75 −$45 -60%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 25 $190 +$108 +57%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 11 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 11 $25 −$7 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? SELL No 97¢ $32 25m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $18 2h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $31 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $30 2h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 9h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $15 9h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $19 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $20 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $20 21h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $15 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 21¢ $13 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $43 25h
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $94 30h
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 30h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $26 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 40¢ $12 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $71 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 40¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay w BUY 20¢ $10 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 40¢ $3 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 39¢ $2 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 39¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 22¢ $10 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 14¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,773.53 · official $1,770.68 (match) · 941 history records