Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9d4…6fdb world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2
politics 24% $0
other 21% −$1
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage295d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 64¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $35 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $103 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $26 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 13 $4 $0 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? Sep 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 360 and 379 times September 5–12? Sep 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $35 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $16 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $16 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $39 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $39 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $16 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.28 · official $33.28 (match) · 248 history records