Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9d5…720f sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$567 (-17%) realized −$559 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%7W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$312
7 days−$1,129
14 days−$832
30 days−$832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$128
other 41% −$909
world 14% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -47.0% -52.0% 11% 11% -60.0%
≤30d 52 -19.1% -26.8% 13% 13% -37.6%
≤90d 52 -19.1% -26.8% 13% 13% -37.6%
all 52 -19.1% -26.8% 13% 13% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 13% -37.6%
10% -33.8% 13% -43.5%
15% -40.2% 12% -49.0%
20% -46.1% 12% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$48 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$559
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses7 / 45
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage8d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $170 $173 +$3 (+2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 43¢ 36¢ $68 $57 −$10 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $49 −$8 -15%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $73 −$4 -6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $149 −$147 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $78 +$71 +92%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $87 −$11 -12%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$150 +586%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $46 +$162 +350%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $26 +$27 +107%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$146 +503%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $121 −$42 -34%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $286 −$171 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 51m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 8¢ $42 54m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $132 55m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 15¢ $133 59m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 9¢ $49 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $69 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 11¢ $69 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $73 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $77 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $149 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $149 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $27 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $41 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 7h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 16h
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 39h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $39 39h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.31 · official $226.95 · 89 history records