Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe9d5…d0ea sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$283 (+1%) realized +$373 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%90W / 48L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days+$15
14 days+$201
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 46% +$241
other 22% −$28
sports 19% −$64
crypto 6% +$57
world 2% −$15
tech 2% +$34
culture 1% +$12
politics 1% +$10
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +5.5% -4.6% 69% 41% -9.2%
≤30d 55 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 40% -5.9%
≤90d 87 +3.3% -6.6% 66% 39% -6.9%
all 138 +1.8% -7.9% 65% 33% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 33% -7.7%
10% -16.7% 17% -16.5%
15% -24.7% 9% -24.6%
20% -32.1% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$24 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized+$373
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses90 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)138 / 142
History coverage312d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $323 $273 −$50 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $45 $58 +$14 (+30%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 16¢ $135 $33 −$102 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $93 +$7 +7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $192 −$1 -1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $96 +$4 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $157 +$12 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $87 −$30 -34%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $69 −$24 -35%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $156 −$65 -42%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $67 −$38 -56%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $79 +$12 +15%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $88 +$12 +14%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $92 −$1 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $38 +$12 +33%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$25 -25%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $205 −$10 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $90 +$11 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$59 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 +$8 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $139 +$5 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $94 −$60 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $91 −$58 -64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 +$13 +35%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $79 +$21 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 +$19 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $89 +$11 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $91 +$9 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $42 +$8 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $231 −$11 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$25 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $86 +$14 +16%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 14 $552 +$36 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +60%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $181 +$19 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $38 −$17 -46%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$8 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $82 +$18 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $261 +$39 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$66 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $190 54m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $24 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $24 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $24 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $24 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $90 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $93 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $64 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 13h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $75 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $57 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $45 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $87 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $69 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 46¢ $91 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $67 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $29 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $89 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $67 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $92 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $88 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $91 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $38 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $513.23 · official $513.23 (match) · 628 history records