Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe9de…7310 sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,536 (+3%) realized +$5,039 · open −$3,503
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$836per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$613est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$7
world 4% −$1,969
crypto 1% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.5% +3.6% 46% 46% -1.2%
≤30d 37 -14.2% -22.4% 43% 43% -12.5%
≤90d 54 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 48% -6.6%
all 54 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 48% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 48% -6.6%
10% -22.5% 43% -15.5%
15% -30.0% 39% -23.7%
20% -36.9% 39% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,079) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$637 vs −$545 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,553
Realized+$5,039
Unrealized−$3,503
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$613
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage44d
Avg bet$836
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 22¢ $6,055 $2,553 −$3,503 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $750 +$728 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $184 +$236 +129%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,419 +$1,751 +72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,969 −$1,969 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $585 −$33 -6%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,560 +$1,641 +105%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $108 −$107 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 −$10 -21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3,016 −$2,971 -98%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $3,344 −$224 -7%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,409 +$2,051 +146%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 12 $624 +$456 +73%
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 10 $241 −$237 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $411 +$94 +23%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $353 +$303 +86%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $888 +$191 +22%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $233 +$292 +125%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $400 +$290 +73%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $724 +$732 +101%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $951 −$935 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1,100 +$160 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $52 +$41 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $53 −$50 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $172 −$169 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $94 −$94 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $95 −$94 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $1,128 −$1,122 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $1,433 −$1,426 -100%
Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5) May 22 $490 +$515 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $597 −$590 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $1,328 +$757 +57%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $976 −$968 -99%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $558 +$292 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $2,091 +$2,029 +97%
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5 May 17 $292 +$308 +105%
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score May 17 $526 +$434 +83%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5 May 15 $774 −$762 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $698 +$202 +29%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 14 $418 +$282 +67%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 13 $155 −$151 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 13 $696 −$682 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 12 $664 −$651 -98%
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5) May 11 $1,079 +$177 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $714 +$721 +101%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 10 $1,106 −$1,090 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $6,144 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $750 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $184 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,969 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $12 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 58¢ $2,407 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $552 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $585 3d
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 47¢ $19 4d
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 47¢ $12 4d
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 47¢ $78 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 48¢ $3 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 48¢ $166 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 48¢ $696 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 48¢ $696 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 20¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 20¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 32¢ $42 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 9¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $0 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $518 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,066 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $716 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $716 5d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 51¢ $207 6d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 51¢ $303 6d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 52¢ $525 6d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 52¢ $315 6d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 52¢ $652 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,552.70 · official $2,790.16 · 179 history records