Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9de…460c world 34 markets active 8h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$2
other 22% +$4
finance 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.8% -11.1% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage462d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $56 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $13 +$2 +20%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Mar 20 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $29 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $8 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $21 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records