Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E9 0xe9df…2fea other 53 markets active 4h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$83 (+7%) realized +$79 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%30W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$19
sports 38% +$176
crypto 5% −$49
world 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +13.9% +3.0% 60% 54% -0.5%
≤30d 50 +13.9% +3.0% 60% 54% -0.5%
≤90d 50 +13.9% +3.0% 60% 54% -0.5%
all 50 +13.9% +3.0% 60% 54% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 54% -0.5%
10% -6.8% 50% -10.0%
15% -15.8% 46% -18.7%
20% -24.1% 40% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses30 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+48%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$14 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$14 -68%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$15 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $18 +$3 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +123%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +307%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$49 -81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$10 +103%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $32 +$34 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$44 -86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $16 +$72 +442%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$21 +209%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$14 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $15 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $5 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 40h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 40h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.94 · official $38.94 (match) · 95 history records