Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9e5…b040 sports 425 markets active 9h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$994 (-5%) realized −$991 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate67%279W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$426
14 days−$841
30 days−$1,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$905
other 3% −$252
crypto 1% +$34
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -15.4% -23.4% 54% 46% -31.1%
≤30d 101 -9.5% -18.1% 54% 50% -21.7%
≤90d 414 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 49% -14.5%
all 414 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 49% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 49% -14.5%
10% -19.4% 34% -22.7%
15% -27.2% 22% -30.2%
20% -34.3% 16% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$39 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$991
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses279 / 135
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions11
Markets (closed)414 / 425
History coverage66d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 81¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $310 −$307 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $21 +$8 +36%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $55 +$17 +31%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $151 +$41 +27%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $50 +$5 +11%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$32 +32%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$11 +27%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $31 +$3 +9%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $59 +$15 +26%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $43 −$42 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $20 +$73 +358%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $77 +$44 +57%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $51 +$26 +52%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $51 +$36 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $103 +$82 +79%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $74 +$6 +8%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $50 +$23 +46%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $51 −$13 -25%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $200 +$17 +9%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $51 +$37 +73%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $51 −$5 -11%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $51 +$34 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs NightBirds (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $58 +$12 +20%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $51 +$25 +50%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $101 +$38 +38%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $101 +$23 +23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $101 +$34 +34%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $168 +$73 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 9h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $50 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 9h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 65¢ $310 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 52¢ $29 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $21 4d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Misa Esports 33¢ $41 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 57¢ $51 4d
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY No 58¢ $51 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 4d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $192 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 76¢ $55 5d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY Misa Esports 78¢ $151 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL G2 NORD 37¢ $33 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 78¢ $40 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 99¢ $74 6d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.74 · official $191.75 (match) · 765 history records