Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9ec…2b75 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-32%) realized −$112 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$101
14 days−$113
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$128
other 29% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -14.6% -22.8% 45% 45% -22.2%
≤30d 37 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 43% -24.9%
≤90d 37 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 43% -24.9%
all 37 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 43% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 43% -24.9%
10% -30.5% 43% -32.1%
15% -37.3% 43% -38.7%
20% -43.4% 32% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage8d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 65¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 −$1 -69%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$5 +134%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3 −$2 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 +$2 +50%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 +$3 +134%
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$7 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $0 $0 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $136 −$102 -75%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +104%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$2 -34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$6 -59%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$4 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$7 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY 27¢ $5 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 15h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $2 15h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 15h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 30h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. BUY 4¢ $5 30h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 41h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 41h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 41h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 41h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $5 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $5 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.97 · official $42.97 · 72 history records