Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9ed…cfea crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-39%) realized −$27 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$13
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$29
other 41% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-67.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 26 -64.5% -67.9% 8% 8% -72.1%
≤90d 26 -64.5% -67.9% 8% 8% -72.1%
all 26 -64.5% -67.9% 8% 8% -72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.9% 8% -72.1%
10% -71.0% 8% -74.8%
15% -73.8% 8% -77.2%
20% -76.3% 8% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$3 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$7 +614%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $0 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.43 · official $28.43 (match) · 36 history records