Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe9ee…cacc world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+2%) realized +$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$73
other 5% +$7
sports 3% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +73.3% +56.8% 50% 50% +86.5%
≤30d 4 +73.3% +56.8% 50% 50% +86.5%
≤90d 30 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 43% -6.2%
all 30 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 43% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 43% -6.2%
10% -12.6% 23% -15.2%
15% -21.0% 20% -23.4%
20% -28.8% 13% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage80d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$42 +414%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Apr 22 $90 −$90 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $211 +$37 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $50 +$9 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $30 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Apr 20 $98 −$33 -33%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $374 +$42 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $150 −$2 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 18 $150 −$2 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 18 $100 +$11 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $262 +$23 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 16 $50 −$43 -85%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $150 +$15 +10%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 16 $45 +$20 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026? Apr 16 $28 +$4 +14%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $153 +$43 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 07 $70 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 02 $1 +$4 +396%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $46 +$8 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 57d
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? BUY No 72¢ $90 58d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $234 58d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $59 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $30 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $30 60d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $33 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $203 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $50 60d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 60d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $33 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $127 61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $123 61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $249 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $148 62d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $98 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $121 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $100 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $45 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 62d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? SELL No 78¢ $148 62d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY No 79¢ $150 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $91 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.45 · official $18.45 (match) · 77 history records