Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9f1…3ca6 other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%37W / 61L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
sports 28% +$2
other 25% −$1
economics 9% +$1
politics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 28% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 36 +3.1% -6.7% 31% 3% -9.5%
all 98 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage452d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $87 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $87 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $95 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $87 −$3 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $260 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $83 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $82 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $83 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $176 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $166 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $926 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1,052 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $928 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $927 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $1,020 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $927 +$1 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,020 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $4 $0 +4%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Aug 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $87 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $87 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $69 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $96 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $95 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $81 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $80 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $85 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $84 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $93 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $93 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $84 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $84 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $84 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $65 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.11 · official $85.56 · 366 history records