Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9f2…fafa crypto 397 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,551 (-1%) realized −$3,550 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate85%335W / 61L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,310per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1,470est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$2,514
14 days−$1,500
30 days−$3,893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$6,502
crypto 14% +$1,559
other 0% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.2% -26.9% 70% 20% -32.1%
≤30d 281 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 27% -12.4%
≤90d 396 -0.8% -10.3% 85% 27% -10.4%
all 396 -0.8% -10.3% 85% 27% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 27% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 10% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 5% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$638 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$3,550
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses335 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1,470
Open positions1
Markets (closed)396 / 397
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1,310
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$22 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $81 −$41 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,543 +$1,598 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,011 −$4,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,229 +$386 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 07 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $112 +$25 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $720 +$118 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $310 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $311 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $401 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,291 +$240 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $905 −$47 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $111 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $503 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 04 $300 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3,103 +$216 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $231 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $213 +$57 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $400 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $150 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $151 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $65 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 93¢ $1,002 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $1,002 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 62¢ $506 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 67¢ $1,010 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $1,016 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 43¢ $575 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 75¢ $504 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $504 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $3,004 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 79¢ $1,006 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 81¢ $503 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 75¢ $222 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.19 · official $149.19 (match) · 1298 history records