Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9fc…96cd sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$125 (-19%) realized −$98 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$16
other 33% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 44% -24.3%
≤30d 18 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 44% -24.3%
≤90d 19 -25.5% -32.6% 47% 42% -25.7%
all 19 -25.5% -32.6% 47% 42% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 42% -25.7%
10% -39.0% 42% -32.8%
15% -44.9% 42% -39.3%
20% -50.3% 37% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage44d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $80 $59 −$21 (-27%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 15¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$52 +52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $54 −$54 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $29 +$26 +89%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$14 +70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$16 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$19 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $24 +$17 +70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $152 18m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $100 53m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 77¢ $54 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $29 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 22¢ $5 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 36h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $26 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $56 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $40 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $24 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 6d
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.86 · official $72.86 (match) · 37 history records