Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E9 0xe9fc…9146 crypto 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate98%133W / 3L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$35
14 days−$915
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 28 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 4% -11.1%
≤90d 82 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 5% -9.8%
all 136 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$571) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$360 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses133 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage135d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $361 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $355 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $353 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $335 +$18 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $332 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $330 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,407 −$1,077 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,375 +$31 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $919 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,349 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,324 +$25 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$9 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,254 +$33 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,278 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,168 +$42 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,113 +$88 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,136 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,119 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,049 +$69 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $951 +$98 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $939 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $924 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $908 +$18 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $892 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $834 +$58 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $803 +$31 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $799 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $791 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $790 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $751 +$39 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $743 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $722 +$21 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $649 +$73 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $641 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $635 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $571 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $628 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $158 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $308 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $615 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $614 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 3? May 03 $215 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 3? May 03 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 03 $265 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $597 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 22? Apr 23 $572 +$24 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $171 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $76 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $355 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $356 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $219 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $134 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 490 history records