Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9fd…4f20 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$77 (+7%) realized +$102 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$130
other 18% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 45% -3.6%
≤30d 20 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 45% -3.6%
≤90d 20 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 45% -3.6%
all 20 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 45% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 45% -3.6%
10% -22.1% 45% -12.8%
15% -29.6% 45% -21.2%
20% -36.5% 45% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$43 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 19¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $25 +$42 +165%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $25 +$37 +145%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$51 +165%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$25 +83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $148 +$112 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $104 −$103 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$42 +65%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $169 +$145 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 13h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $12 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $25 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 13h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $26 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $25 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $25 15h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $26 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $25 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $62 18h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $26 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $26 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $25 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $30 21h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 37¢ $31 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $260 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $148 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 33¢ $51 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $104 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $51 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $26 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $56 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $107 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $65 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $313 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $169 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 33 history records