Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

E9 0xe9fe…cad2 other 24 markets active 7h ago coverage 143d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$204 (+6%) realized +$205 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate57%13W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$136per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$50

7 days+$105

14 days+$105

30 days+$105

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-16.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+13.5%	+2.7%	71%	64%	+6.0%
≤30d	14	+13.5%	+2.7%	71%	64%	+6.0%
≤90d	14	+13.5%	+2.7%	71%	64%	+6.0%
all	23	-7.9%	-16.7%	57%	52%	-3.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.7%	52%	-3.9%
10%	-24.7%	30%	-13.1%
15%	-31.9%	26%	-21.5%
20%	-38.6%	22%	-29.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -41% → late +23% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$57 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.35 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$205

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses13 / 10

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage143d

Avg bet$136

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	56¢	$20	$20	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$17	+$3	+20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+68%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$21	+$8	+38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$22	+$4	+20%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$214	+$28	+13%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$10	$0	+1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$51	+$28	+55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$26	+$61	+238%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$5	+$6	+119%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$53	−$53	-99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$170	+$29	+17%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t	Mar 16	$227	$0	-0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15?	Mar 15	$1,200	+$422	+35%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?	Mar 15	$8	−$8	-100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina	Mar 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?	Mar 15	$99	−$99	-100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 15	$263	−$263	-100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 15	$116	+$74	+64%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$133	−$117	-88%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28?	Jan 28	$565	+$97	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$21	7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	65¢	$1	7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	69¢	$2	7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	61¢	$12	8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	65¢	$4	8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	94¢	$5	8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	71¢	$1	8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	73¢	$3	8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	69¢	$3	8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	73¢	$7	8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	71¢	$21	9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	83¢	$17	9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	54¢	$12	9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	48¢	$10	9h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$243	9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	53¢	$10	11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL Yes	44¢	$10	34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$214	35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	3d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	45¢	$5	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	46¢	$10	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	72¢	$53	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	29¢	$26	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$199	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	85¢	$170	3d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t	SELL Yes	65¢	$227	95d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t	BUY Yes	65¢	$227	96d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.77 · official $19.77 (match) · 53 history records